Comments on: The Billion-Dollar Book http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/ America's Mad Professor of Fiction Writing Mon, 21 May 2012 03:50:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1.3 By: Jenni http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12370 Jenni Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:31:27 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12370 Wow... I definitely do not see the ebook publishing industry taking off until they lower the price. I have considered buying ebooks, but for $10 apiece on a book I don't even know if I'll like... nope, not going to do that! Now, $3, I can spend $3 on a book and not feel bad if I only read it once. Just like renting a movie. Your marketing ideas make so much sense. I look forward to see how the ebook industry plays out after reading this! :) Wow…

I definitely do not see the ebook publishing industry taking off until they lower the price. I have considered buying ebooks, but for $10 apiece on a book I don’t even know if I’ll like… nope, not going to do that! Now, $3, I can spend $3 on a book and not feel bad if I only read it once. Just like renting a movie.

Your marketing ideas make so much sense. I look forward to see how the ebook industry plays out after reading this! :)

]]> By: T.N. Tobias http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12371 T.N. Tobias Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:32:02 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12371 I think this is a stretch. While it's technically possible to sell 500 million people the same thing, it's not likely. Even less likely with something as personal as a book. Personalities are like fingerprints, the strategic mission of a book that sells to 500 million people would have to triangulate the interests of 1/8th of the world's population in order sell enough copies. To do that as a self-published author would be like winning the lottery over and over and over again. Maybe if JK Rowling wrote a vampire romance that criticized the policies of Barack Obama while tattooed girl hackers told the story of their family lives in St. Paul, Minnesota.... <strong>Randy sez</strong>: Of course it's not likely. So far as I know, nobody has ever come close. There are millions of books that have been published. Obviously, the odds are low. But the odds are rising. If I've understood the numbers right, some of JKR's books have sold close to 100 million copies apiece. Hard to know the exact numbers. Now imagine if the books were an order of magnitude cheaper. Instead of list prices in the $10 to $30 range, what if they were priced at $2.99? Or $4.99? And imagine you could get it instantly with no delivery costs. Think she'd sell more copies? I suspect she would. The real question is what price point would maximize revenue for her. Nobody really knows. In five years, we'll have a lot more data and that question will be answerable. A B-book is a stretch, but it's at least technically feasible. Sooner or later, somebody will do it. Barack outclassed his competitors in fundraising by at least a factor of 3, if I remember right. Imagine what he could have done if there were no time limit on the fundraising. I think this is a stretch. While it’s technically possible to sell 500 million people the same thing, it’s not likely. Even less likely with something as personal as a book. Personalities are like fingerprints, the strategic mission of a book that sells to 500 million people would have to triangulate the interests of 1/8th of the world’s population in order sell enough copies. To do that as a self-published author would be like winning the lottery over and over and over again.

Maybe if JK Rowling wrote a vampire romance that criticized the policies of Barack Obama while tattooed girl hackers told the story of their family lives in St. Paul, Minnesota….

Randy sez: Of course it’s not likely. So far as I know, nobody has ever come close. There are millions of books that have been published. Obviously, the odds are low. But the odds are rising. If I’ve understood the numbers right, some of JKR’s books have sold close to 100 million copies apiece. Hard to know the exact numbers. Now imagine if the books were an order of magnitude cheaper. Instead of list prices in the $10 to $30 range, what if they were priced at $2.99? Or $4.99? And imagine you could get it instantly with no delivery costs. Think she’d sell more copies? I suspect she would. The real question is what price point would maximize revenue for her. Nobody really knows. In five years, we’ll have a lot more data and that question will be answerable. A B-book is a stretch, but it’s at least technically feasible. Sooner or later, somebody will do it. Barack outclassed his competitors in fundraising by at least a factor of 3, if I remember right. Imagine what he could have done if there were no time limit on the fundraising.

]]> By: Judith Robl http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12409 Judith Robl Sat, 11 Sep 2010 11:28:44 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12409 Randy, Glad to know all your books will be available. But hurry, please! Next question. How do I get them autographed? Randy, Glad to know all your books will be available. But hurry, please! Next question. How do I get them autographed?

]]> By: S.J. Owens http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12413 S.J. Owens Sat, 11 Sep 2010 12:45:50 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12413 I'm with you Randy, the feasibility and possibility of a B-book is there. I'm already a fan of e books. Why? I don't have to get in my car and run to my favorite bookstore. My book/books are constantly with me. Neat, no crumbled pages from being in my purse, compact, loaded on my phone and portability, my books are always with me. As in any business, marketing is the key to selling your product. With the internet, the feasibility and the 'possibility' are there and I believe that is what you were pointing out. I’m with you Randy, the feasibility and possibility of a B-book is there. I’m already a fan of e books. Why? I don’t have to get in my car and run to my favorite bookstore. My book/books are constantly with me. Neat, no crumbled pages from being in my purse, compact, loaded on my phone and portability, my books are always with me.
As in any business, marketing is the key to selling your product. With the internet, the feasibility and the ‘possibility’ are there and I believe that is what you were pointing out.

]]> By: Melinda Evaul http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12415 Melinda Evaul Sat, 11 Sep 2010 14:14:02 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12415 This post gave me wonderful ideas. I'm planning my marketing strategy for a series of novels. I think I'll follow your advice and see where it leads. I should at least sell a few books and build a tribe in the process. This post gave me wonderful ideas. I’m planning my marketing strategy for a series of novels. I think I’ll follow your advice and see where it leads. I should at least sell a few books and build a tribe in the process.

]]> By: RevTrev http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12419 RevTrev Sat, 11 Sep 2010 15:51:51 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12419 Looks like I'm on track for my upcoming launch...don't know if I'll hit the B with this one, but I like challenges beyond the conceivable. Looks like I’m on track for my upcoming launch…don’t know if I’ll hit the B with this one, but I like challenges beyond the conceivable.

]]> By: Marilyn Walker http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12429 Marilyn Walker Sat, 11 Sep 2010 18:55:33 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12429 Right or wrong, this is an intriguing idea. OK, yes, it disturbs me and makes me uncomfortable. I have very mixed feelings about this idea of self-published books becoming mainstream like this. One question that comes to mind is foreign language versions. At this juncture, I'd imagine a writer has no easy way to control this. And that would be necessary to push something into the billions. I just hope we don't fall into a world where all we have is people trying to sort through so much junk they can't find the good stuff. I mean, youtube is fun, but I still watch mainstream media for the good stuff. Right or wrong, this is an intriguing idea. OK, yes, it disturbs me and makes me uncomfortable. I have very mixed feelings about this idea of self-published books becoming mainstream like this. One question that comes to mind is foreign language versions. At this juncture, I’d imagine a writer has no easy way to control this. And that would be necessary to push something into the billions. I just hope we don’t fall into a world where all we have is people trying to sort through so much junk they can’t find the good stuff. I mean, youtube is fun, but I still watch mainstream media for the good stuff.

]]> By: -dd- http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12470 -dd- Sun, 12 Sep 2010 21:03:06 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12470 First, color me confused. It seems Robert Sawyer does not recommend that authors publish their work themselves. He suggest that we pay our dues just like other authors before us and come up through the ranks by writing short stories for periodical magazines that take un-agented submissions; for science fiction this is places like Asimov and Analog. Then there is this collected response, http://sfwriter.com/blog/?p=2221 , that again says "don't self-publish", but seems to say that Sawyer is a supporter of e-books. So, I don't get it. Is my confusion due to interpreting Randy's "self-publish" term the same as Sawyer's, when, in fact, they mean different things? And why would Sawyer say "don't" when Randy says "do"? <strong>Randy sez</strong>: The industry is changing rapidly, so advice that was true even six months ago may no longer apply. I've changed my mind in the months since Apple announced the iPad. This was a game-changer, not because the iPad is the only good e-reader device (it's not, there are many good ones) and not because the iBookStore will capture all the market share for e-books (Amazon has that locked up at the moment). The reason the iPad is a game-changer is because it lit a fire under Amazon's feet. Soon after the iPad announcement, Amazon switched to an "agency" model where they pay the publisher a fixed percentage of the retail sale. The publisher now sets the price. These changes made it possible for authors acting as publishers to control their game, and it let them earn a fair return. It makes self-publishing the smart thing to do for many (but not all) authors. Everyone is confused right now. It's a time to experiment, learn, and keep what works. First, color me confused. It seems Robert Sawyer does not recommend that authors publish their work themselves. He suggest that we pay our dues just like other authors before us and come up through the ranks by writing short stories for periodical magazines that take un-agented submissions; for science fiction this is places like Asimov and Analog. Then there is this collected response, http://sfwriter.com/blog/?p=2221 , that again says “don’t self-publish”, but seems to say that Sawyer is a supporter of e-books. So, I don’t get it.

Is my confusion due to interpreting Randy’s “self-publish” term the same as Sawyer’s, when, in fact, they mean different things?

And why would Sawyer say “don’t” when Randy says “do”?

Randy sez: The industry is changing rapidly, so advice that was true even six months ago may no longer apply. I’ve changed my mind in the months since Apple announced the iPad. This was a game-changer, not because the iPad is the only good e-reader device (it’s not, there are many good ones) and not because the iBookStore will capture all the market share for e-books (Amazon has that locked up at the moment). The reason the iPad is a game-changer is because it lit a fire under Amazon’s feet. Soon after the iPad announcement, Amazon switched to an “agency” model where they pay the publisher a fixed percentage of the retail sale. The publisher now sets the price. These changes made it possible for authors acting as publishers to control their game, and it let them earn a fair return. It makes self-publishing the smart thing to do for many (but not all) authors. Everyone is confused right now. It’s a time to experiment, learn, and keep what works.

]]> By: AlexOngNYC http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12545 AlexOngNYC Tue, 14 Sep 2010 14:21:18 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12545 Amazing advice and insight. Alex Amazing advice and insight.

Alex

]]> By: Melissa http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12551 Melissa Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:43:56 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-12551 This is an interesting post. I'm not very familiar with the intricacies of e-books though. I understand you can purchase them on many different formats, including .pdf. Can anyone enlighten me on what is there to prevent people from just e-mailing the .pdf file of your book to a friend (which would cut into sales)? Or is it similar to music on .mp3 - anyone can conceivably just send the file to anyone they want and risk the consequences, and the only thing that keeps people purchasing the original files is convenience and fear of getting caught breaking the law? Thanks. This is an interesting post. I’m not very familiar with the intricacies of e-books though. I understand you can purchase them on many different formats, including .pdf. Can anyone enlighten me on what is there to prevent people from just e-mailing the .pdf file of your book to a friend (which would cut into sales)? Or is it similar to music on .mp3 - anyone can conceivably just send the file to anyone they want and risk the consequences, and the only thing that keeps people purchasing the original files is convenience and fear of getting caught breaking the law? Thanks.

]]> By: Karen Cioffi http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-13232 Karen Cioffi Sun, 03 Oct 2010 20:02:41 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-13232 Great article. I just watched an Oprah interview with JKR. She was rejected 12 times before she hit pay dirt. She also said she believed in the book; she knew if she could get it published, it'd take off. And, I agree, I think e-books are the way to go. Great article. I just watched an Oprah interview with JKR. She was rejected 12 times before she hit pay dirt.
She also said she believed in the book; she knew if she could get it published, it’d take off.

And, I agree, I think e-books are the way to go.

]]> By: C.J. Ellisson http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-14444 C.J. Ellisson Tue, 26 Oct 2010 19:21:22 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-14444 I'm a newbie writer on the scene trying to hawk her first book. Thanks so much for this terrific blog article. It assured me I've done loads right and helped steer me in the right direction to do even more. Bravo! Will my book be the first b-book? I doubt it, it has too much sex in it. But it's always smart to take the first steps and do things right when marketing on your own. Thanks again for your efforts in putting this piece together. Writer's around the world salute you! I’m a newbie writer on the scene trying to hawk her first book. Thanks so much for this terrific blog article. It assured me I’ve done loads right and helped steer me in the right direction to do even more. Bravo!

Will my book be the first b-book? I doubt it, it has too much sex in it. But it’s always smart to take the first steps and do things right when marketing on your own.

Thanks again for your efforts in putting this piece together. Writer’s around the world salute you!

]]> By: Rachel Rawlings http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-14554 Rachel Rawlings Sun, 31 Oct 2010 10:40:46 +0000 http://www.advancedfictionwriting.com/blog/2010/09/10/the-billion-dollar-book/#comment-14554 Great article! Reassuring to know as an author trying to sell my first novel that I am doing a lot of this already. I think you are spot on with your theory of self publishing and would offer this to authors worried about taking the leap: Our industry is changing and possibly not for the better beacuse the world is changing. People are seeing their expendable incomes shrink rapidly. Publishers and agents know that books sales are decining while less expensive e-formatted books sales are on the rise. They are less and less likely to take on new authors. They'll stay with the branded and established author who cranks out the same material because it sells to their fan base. JKR may have been rejected 12 times and LKH may have been rejected 20 or so time but those numbers will increase for todays authors. If you believe in your work and know that given the right opportunity your book would be successful, self publishing is what you've been looking for. Think this hurts your chance of getting picked up? If you can do it on your own, produce the material, build the fans and do the marketing on your own an agent and a publisher are more likely to sign you. You've saved them a lot of time and money. Great article! Reassuring to know as an author trying to sell my first novel that I am doing a lot of this already. I think you are spot on with your theory of self publishing and would offer this to authors worried about taking the leap:

Our industry is changing and possibly not for the better beacuse the world is changing. People are seeing their expendable incomes shrink rapidly. Publishers and agents know that books sales are decining while less expensive e-formatted books sales are on the rise. They are less and less likely to take on new authors. They’ll stay with the branded and established author who cranks out the same material because it sells to their fan base. JKR may have been rejected 12 times and LKH may have been rejected 20 or so time but those numbers will increase for todays authors. If you believe in your work and know that given the right opportunity your book would be successful, self publishing is what you’ve been looking for. Think this hurts your chance of getting picked up? If you can do it on your own, produce the material, build the fans and do the marketing on your own an agent and a publisher are more likely to sign you. You’ve saved them a lot of time and money.

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